Rents converging back to long-run trend

From 2017 to 2019 the national median rent increased by an average of 2.5 percent per year; if that trend had continued from 2020 through present, the median monthly rent would sit at $1,395 as of August 2026. The actual median rent in August 2026 is $1,390, just barely below that projected level. Rents may have skyrocketed in 2021 and 2022, but the gradual cooldown of the ensuing years has now offset those increases to the extent that the national median rent has converged back to a long-run trend of slow and steady growth.

Key Takeaways

• As of August 2026, the national median rent sits at $1,390, almost exactly where it would have been if rent growth since 2020 had remained on the slow and steady trajectory it had been on pre-pandemic ($1,395).
  
  
• Since 2020, the rental market has whipplashed between skyrocketing rents and price declines, and those alternating hot and cold spells have now offset each other such that rent growth over the past six and half years as a whole averages out to an annual pace of 2.5 percent per year.
  
  
• This national finding masks significant regional variation. In the Buffalo, NY metro, the median rent is 37% higher than it would have been had rents increased at a typical rate, whereas in the Austin, TX metro, rents are 15% below that level.