Commercial real estate had its best start in years. Transaction volume hit $113B in the first quarter, the strongest opening since before the rate shock, and for a few months, the industry's long-deferred recovery looked less like a wish and more like a fact.
Then, the United States went to war with Iran, and the 10-year Treasury crossed 4.5% in May. CRE sales fell 33% in April, the first year-over-year decline since last June.
Newmark had predicted “decaf stagflation” at the start of the year — below-trend growth, stubborn inflation, no rate relief — and that forecast aged better than anyone wanted it to.
Last month in Miami, CBRE economist Matt Mowell said the quiet part out loud: “We came into 2026 as an industry with a lot of hopes. … I think we're going to have to pull back some of those very strong expectations.”
Sound familiar?
Fifty-six leaders told Bisnow they walked into 2025 expecting rate cuts and a thawing market but then spent that July confessing that tariffs and frozen rates had rewritten the year entirely. The industry keeps arriving at January with a plan and at July with a reckoning...
RSK: Some very interesting comments. You can tell the go getters.....they "make hay, even when the sun don't shine".
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- - Volume: 26 - WEEK: 29 Date: 7/14/2026 9:29:04 PM -