 Restaurant Visitation Data Reflects "Two-Tier Economy"The
state of the consumer was top of mind during second-quarter 2025
earnings calls, as restaurant executives consistently described a more
cautious and discerning customer. Leaders from major brands like
McDonald`s, Chipotle, and Starbucks noted that lower-income consumers,
in particular, are feeling the pressure of a challenging economy and are
pulling back on the frequency of their visits. McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski framed it as a "two-tier economy,"
where affluent consumers continue to spend while lower-to-middle income
households face significant cost-of-living pressures. This trend is
visible in visitation data, which shows quick-service (QSR) and
fast-casual restaurants underperforming full-service restaurants and
coffee chains in recent months. Key Takeaways - QSRs
and fast casual chains are under pressure as budget-conscious diners
trade down to cheaper promotions or shift spending to grocery, dollar,
and convenience stores.
- Premium fast-casual brands like
Chipotle, Sweetgreen, and CAVA are struggling with softer demand,
consumer “slop bowl” fatigue, and competition from grocers’ grab-and-go
offerings.
- Casual dining chains such as Chili’s, Applebee’s, and
Olive Garden are outperforming the industry by leaning into bundled
value meals and strong promotional messaging.
RSK: The lunch crowd has definitely taken a downturn...but the last paragraph tells it all. Read it and be ready to help transition some of those that cannot make the grade. Opportunity here.
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