More regional lenders will go under, experts say, and real estate is bracing for impact
The echoes began in May.
Barry Sternlicht of Starwood Capital Group predicted a regional bank failure “every day or every week.”
Days later, Newmark Chair Howard Lutnick warned, “Every single weekend a regional bank is going to go bye-bye,” and predicted 500 to 1,000 failures in 2025 and 2026 — as did alternative lenders speaking at the same event. In June, PIMCO’s head of global private commercial real estate joined the chorus.
Their take: The distress shaking commercial real estate — office, most violently — will collapse the small- and midsize banks that have been bread-and-butter lenders to the industry.
Most economists agree that because of rising rates, declining asset values and banks’ hesitancy to mark their loans to market, such failures are a certainty. The question is whether bigger banks and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation can stop collapses from spinning into crisis...
Barry Sternlicht of Starwood Capital Group predicted a regional bank failure “every day or every week.”
Days later, Newmark Chair Howard Lutnick warned, “Every single weekend a regional bank is going to go bye-bye,” and predicted 500 to 1,000 failures in 2025 and 2026 — as did alternative lenders speaking at the same event. In June, PIMCO’s head of global private commercial real estate joined the chorus.
Their take: The distress shaking commercial real estate — office, most violently — will collapse the small- and midsize banks that have been bread-and-butter lenders to the industry.
Most economists agree that because of rising rates, declining asset values and banks’ hesitancy to mark their loans to market, such failures are a certainty. The question is whether bigger banks and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation can stop collapses from spinning into crisis...
RSK: WIll your bank be one of the 600 fewer by the end of 2025? This is contrary to last week`s article where the Feds said almost all banks meet the threshold and will not default because of CMB loans.
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- - Volume: 24 - WEEK: 28 Date: 7/9/2024 7:31:44 AM -