Fed Chairman Jerome Powell`s preferred bond-market metric is signaling that a recession is certain this year and that rate cuts are also coming.
The spread between the current yield on three-month Treasury bills and their expected yield in 18 months is now inverted by a record 134 basis points.
That`s more than the previous record set in January 2001, about two months before a recession began in the US, according to Bloomberg...
The spread between the current yield on three-month Treasury bills and their expected yield in 18 months is now inverted by a record 134 basis points.
That`s more than the previous record set in January 2001, about two months before a recession began in the US, according to Bloomberg...
- Fed Chairman Jerome Powell`s preferred bond-market indicator says a recession is on the way this year.
- It`s the spread between the yield on three-month Treasury bills and their expected yield in 18 months.
- Powell has touted the predictive power of the gauge in previous statements.
RSK: The inversion is real so something has to give.
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- - Volume: 11 - WEEK: 13 Date: 3/27/2023 6:19:24 PM -